Let’s take a look at a dataset of quarterly visitor nights (in millions) from the 1st quarter of 1998 to the 4th quarter of 2011 for a certain region of Australia: Sydney – Sydney metropolitan area NSW – New South Wales other than Sydney Melbourne – Melbourne metropolitan area VIC – Victoria other than Melbourne…
Time series forecasting is a statistical modelling discipline that focuses solely on the historical behavior of only one metric. In other words, it is not concerned with predicting the value of one metric, say GDP, by assessing the value of another metric, say interest rates. Throughout, we loosely use the terms metric, measure, instrument, etc……